Malaysia Airlines plane missing...

[9V-Orion Images]

http://www.straitstimes.com/breakin...students-theory-mas-mh370-goes-viral-20140312

Interested to hear our local expert Orion think.

Speaking in the capacity as a certified Category B2 / C LAE with multiple type rating qualifications including but not limited to the Boeing T7, the hypothesis or theory (once again still based on the grounds of assumptions, presumptions, suppositions) referred to in the Tumblr article is pretty much filled with fallacies.

ACARS / CPDLC (HF & VHF), ACARS / CPDLC (SATCOM), ADS-B / Mode S / TCAS XPDR, GPS and SATCOM antennas are all located separately in differing STA along the top and bottom of the fuselage with numerous of those systems having multiple RX / TX for redundancy purpose. It will take a major structural failure resulting in an explosive decompression for them to be all wiped out at the same period of time resulting in those systems being inop simultaneously.

Speaking as someone formerly involved with systems engineering development and design integration in an United States Fortune 50 defence contractor for many years and having sailed through the South and East China Sea over a dozen times and more. All I can say is that the Chinese have pretty excellent military aerial and surface radar coverage (including from over-the-horizon radar facilities) beginning just before the 18th parallel all the way up through to the 50th parallel possibly even higher up north, any unidentified bogey approaching inbound towards their ADIZ is bound to be intercepted by scrambled PLAAF fighter aircraft.

With all that said, I'm no expert with still much to learn. Just offering my humble two cents.

 

[Yutaka Go]

From what I read recently, civilian radar depend on transponder but military radar don't need transponder to track aircraft. However, without transponder returning the aircraft unique ID, the military doesn't know is it MH370 or an UFO from Mars flying over their head. That why the military cannot confirm whether MH370 make an u turn to Malaca straits. The military radar also cannot detect if aircraft fly too low. I believe MH370 may have crash into the Mangrove swamp at Indonesia Aceh.

 

[kandinsky]

Even if the airplane's transponder goes off or can't send anymore, any radar will still record the aircraft as a massive metal object. The question is, whether the flight control radar is able to pick up and display this signal or it is solely depending on the transponder data to identify the aircraft. Regardless from that, military radar of MY and VN should have tracked it all the way on its course. So why are there absolutely no radar records of the big aircraft in the sky after the transponder signal went off?

From what little I've read, it's not a given that the aircraft was definitely detectable throughout its journey.

Air traffic controllers can use both primary and secondary radar to keep an eye on planes while they’re nearby (usually within a few hundred miles or so), but there are limits to what they can detect. Aviation reporter Steven Trimble told NPR:

The fact is an aircraft can fly off radar. Once it gets over the water, radar coverage is not nearly as robust as it is on land. And, of course, if you go below certain altitude, because of the curvature of the Earth, radar can't see you. And that appears to have happened here.

But Wired points out that it’s possible that a private or military aircraft with more flexible radar capabilities might have picked up clues about Flight 370 without realizing it. A former Marine Corps pilot and current aviation consultant, Col. J. Joseph, told Wired, “I would be very surprised if, on somebody’s radar data, this event was not recorded.”

David Esser, a professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, agrees that it’s possible. “Someone could have picked up a ping from them before they disappeared,” he says. But Esser warns that even these clues might not lead anywhere. “Let’s say the plane broke up at 40,000 feet. This stuff is going to be spread over a pretty wide area. It’s a big ocean.”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...laysia_flight_370_because_it_s_not_magic.html

The possibility of false positives (e.g., flocks of birds) makes it somewhat plausible that a temporary blip might have been easily overlooked by on-duty military personnel, depending on how often these 'false' blips occur. Hopefully the relevant militaries are carefully poring over all their logs for more possible clues.

The aircraft’s transponders, which automatically transmit identifying information and some other data about the plane, including altitude, apparently ceased to function at 1:21 a.m.; after that, radar screens would show the plane only as an unidentified blip. Certain weather conditions, and even flocks of birds, can occasionally cause radar blips that may be mistaken for aircraft.

Signals on Radar Puzzle Officials in Hunt for Malaysian Jet http://nyti.ms/1qvCMz9

 

[diver-hloc]

At least they, unlike us, didn't proclaim to be a First class country

And that make it ok to act like a fool at the airport infront of international media ?? :think:

 

[petetherock]

I am worried someone hijacked it, and will then later on use it as a missile..
The latest theory is that it traveled for four more hours after it was lost to contact..

 

[cks2k2]

I am worried someone hijacked it, and will then later on use it as a missile..
The latest theory is that it traveled for four more hours after it was lost to contact..

latest press conf said no such thing.

UPDATES FROM THE ‪#‎MH370‬ PRESS CONFERENCE AT KLIA
13th March 2014, 5:30PM

> It has been 6 days since MH370 disappeared. Currently 43 ships & 40 aircraft searching South China Sea & Straits of Malacca.

> The news report of MH370 continuing to fly after 4 hours is not true. The last aircraft transmission was at 1:07 am local time. Rolls Royce and Boeing also confirmed this.

> DS Hishammuddin Hussein also confirmed that no debris had been found where Chinese satellite’s detected large objects on Sunday in the South China Sea.

> Malaysia has shared raw military radar data with its international partners.

> DS Hishammuddin Hussein said the situation is unprecedented. It is a complex situation. Malaysia has nothing to hide. There is no real precedent for a situation like this. The plane vanished.

> Rolls Royce and Boeing teams are here in KL and have worked with MAS and the investigations team since Sunday.

> DS Hishammuddin Hussein also dismissed reports that the authorities had raided the homes of members of the plane’s crew.

> DS Hishammuddin Hussein said all unverified info/data will jeopardise our search operations. It is important for us to verify all information

> DS Hishammuddin Hussein confirms the search teams have found nothing from any of the potential leads.

> "We have shared raw military data with partners including U.S. & China to help with investigations. We owe it to the families to follow up on any leads. Our main effort has always been the South China Sea." DS Hishammuddin Hussein

 

[d2xpeter]

From what I read recently, civilian radar depend on transponder but military radar don't need transponder to track aircraft. However, without transponder returning the aircraft unique ID, the military doesn't know is it MH370 or an UFO from Mars flying over their head. That why the military cannot confirm whether MH370 make an u turn to Malaca straits. The military radar also cannot detect if aircraft fly too low. I believe MH370 may have crash into the Mangrove swamp at Indonesia Aceh.

Wa, you are better than bomoh. Using 2 papayas? LOL

 

[d2xpeter]

Personally i find the tumblr post theory most plausible. It explains esp the unanswered call.

 

[9V-Orion Images]

without being insensitive, if a large metal object turns into a million small metal objects it's difficult to track

On the contrary, 150 to 300 tonne (metric ton) of primarily alloy based materials disintegrating from catastrophic structural integrity failure will be akin to a combat aircraft releasing thousands of metallic chaffs as a countermeasure to brake off an hostile engagement following a missile approach warning tone.

Depending on the strength of the emitter and sensitivity of the receiver along with factors affecting attenuation and reflectivity, the multiple radar returns as fragments fall can definitely be picked up by a 3D phased array (commonly used for military based aerial surveillance radar) such as an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) that is now being deployed into common usage or even by a civilian Meteorological pulse Doppler solid state Weather Radar (MDWRX) provided configurations for polarisation and rejection filtering of false echoes (potentially or otherwise) and interferences caused by sources of anomalous propagation (AP or AnoProp) and also energy / urban spikes, ground / sea clutter, super refraction / under refraction etc. etc. is not set to suppressed significantly.

A competently trained and skilled operator who is observant enough will definitely notice something amiss on the scope otherwise they can always review the raw data by pulling the tapes which I'm sure relevant parties involved will be doing.

 

[An drew]

coconut, not watermelon.
View attachment 1163

Now that the Master has taught the technique, many have joined in the search.

http://my.news.yahoo.com/-mh370--klia--bomoh--stunt-spawns-parodies-120112621.html

 

[Yutaka Go]

Wa, you are better than bomoh. Using 2 papayas? LOL
Personally i find the tumblr post theory most plausible. It explains esp the unanswered call.

Either you believe the plane crash on the spot where the radar lost the plane or the
plane continue to fly with the transponder OFF.

If you believe the plane crash, where are the debris ? So far, everyone manage to find some garbage from ships but no debris from the plane.

If you believe the plane continue to fly, where does it go ?

The military radar pick up an unidentified aircraft from the spot where MH370 went missing and trace to Straits of Malacca.

Therefore, my theory is that the plane encountered some problem, may be an electrical short circuit and some of the equipment like radio, transponder and auto pilot are not working.

The pilot decide to make an emergency landing.

He have 2 choices

1) Continue to fly straight to land in Vietnam in the dark to find a run way, which he is unfamiliar and no confident he can find the run way without help from Vietnam control tower.
2) Turn back to KL airport, where he have perform landings many times.

I believe he turn back to KL. However, he need to fly manually in the dark so the plane went off course and overshoot to Strait of Malacca. At this point, other equipments also start to fail so he have no choice but crash land at Indonesia.

I don't think the plane crash into the sea because there are many ships that pass through the strait without noticing any debris. The most likely place to crash is the Mangrove swamp because the mud and vegetation would cover the plane and make it difficult for someone to see it. There are no explosion because of the soft mud and as a result, nobody notice the plane in the swamp.

That is my theory.

 

[Exposure]

Oil rig worker thinks he saw Malaysia Airlines MH370 go down in flames

http://www.straitstimes.com/breakin...w-malaysia-airlines-mh370-go-down-flames-2014

 

[Yutaka Go]

Oil rig worker thinks he saw Malaysia Airlines MH370 go down in flames

http://www.straitstimes.com/breakin...w-malaysia-airlines-mh370-go-down-flames-2014

He is not the first one, who thought they saw something and may not be the last one.

 

[ricohflex]

If he is not bluffing, things do not normally appear burning in the sky at night in the middle of South China Sea.
His message sent to Vietnam and Malaysia. Vietnam says nothing found. Malaysia - no idea why no response.

Then again, after they received his information, (because there would a flood of other information) it may be dismissed as a prank and then not followed up on.

It seems the countries do not share information. Hiding leads so that they would be the first to find and claim credit?

 

[Yutaka Go]

If he is not bluffing, things do not normally appear burning in the sky at night in the middle of South China Sea.
His message sent to Vietnam and Malaysia. Vietnam says nothing found. Malaysia - no idea why no response.

Then again, after they received his information, (because there would a flood of other information) it may be dismissed as a prank and then not followed up on.

It seems the countries do not share information. Hiding leads so that they would be the first to find and claim credit?

There are no central command. Everyone is doing Search And Rescue under their own area of responsibility. Thinking that it would be more efficient this way. But it seem that there are more confusion and misinformation.

One min report seeing something, next min report it as false alarm.

 

[An drew]

Now that the Master has taught the technique, many have joined in the search.

http://my.news.yahoo.com/-mh370--klia--bomoh--stunt-spawns-parodies-120112621.html

Now this has gone viral like Gangnam Style.

http://m.youtube.com/results?q=paro...levance&search_type=search_all&uploaded=&sm=3

[video=youtube;q1BceMqwAEU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1BceMqwAEU&sns=em[/video]

 

[Yutaka Go]

Now this has gone viral like Gangnam Style.

If nobody in Malaysia thought about putting these people in mental hospital. They are as crazy as them.

 

[cks2k2]

There are no central command. Everyone is doing Search And Rescue under their own area of responsibility. Thinking that it would be more efficient this way. But it seem that there are more confusion and misinformation.

One min report seeing something, next min report it as false alarm.

the malaysians are in charge.
problem is they've been giving out so much conflicting information that even those helping i.e. Vietnam are seriously pissed.

 

[Yutaka Go]

the malaysians are in charge.
problem is they've been giving out so much conflicting information that even those helping i.e. Vietnam are seriously pissed.

The Vietnamese also add misinformation
1) Detecting the aircraft emergency signal (later denied).
2) Report oil slick ( which comes from ships )
3) See plane door ( later confirm false alarm )

I feel that all the air force in ASEAN should put their radar data out for analysis. I don't believe radar designed to detect a smaller fighter planes flying at low level can miss a bigger 777.

 

[An drew]

If nobody in Malaysia thought about putting these people in mental hospital. They are as crazy as them.

They are doing it in the hospital too.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/03/13/bomoh-spoof-nurses-ask-to-explain/