The trouble is that mirrorless cameras are almost fully electronic. The physical components, with the exception of the shutter, are now all but removed. This means mirrorless cams are cheaper and easier to manufacture and likely to be more durable in the long run compared to cameras that house optical viewfinders with prisms or mirrors.
The potential for mirrorless cams to improve is limited largely to the rate at which processors increase in speed and camera software. We can all see how fast computer CPUs have improved over the last several years and software will improve also anyway. This probably means mirrorless cams will continue to show rapid improvements.
The traditional DSLR will always be hampered by the physical optical mirror (or prism) box. This will act as a limitation to progress. Eventually production yields ought to tend towards mirrorless and the DSLR should be phased out.
I think that when the phase-out happens it will be sudden, just like Nokia got whopped by the Apple iphone. Suddenly DSLRs will not be bought by anybody and mirrorless models will be the thing to get. It is possible that DSLRs will still linger amongst the larger formats, but once mirrorless takes off it will just be a matter of time before FF, medium format etc. gets incorporated into mirrorless bodies (Hasselblad watch out because Pentax will be faster on the mark).
On the other hand. All the above predictions may fall apart with this:
Lytro
wonglp said:I'm amateur too, switched to Pen fully 2 years ago from E dslr with 14-54, 50/2, 7-0-300 with 70% with 14-54 on my camera since '07. m43 lenses were limited then and good lenses on 43 are mostly PDAF, functionality on pen was lacking behind E system.
But I found a new joy in photography, portability, EVF and adapting manual prime lenses, suddenly some of problems are no longer an issue. With the portability, I can bring a few more primes than I had with 43 dslr. The 43 lenses are great but after switching to Pen, I started learning and enjoying primes and the I prefer the results I get from primes. I dun use zooms except for 9-18, 100-300 these days. And 95% of my pictures are from primes now. And now with more primes on m43 range, i find myself using lesser manual lenses and just rely on the AF, i put them on my gxr instead for 1.5x crop. The IQ and portability from 12mm, 20mm, 25mm, 45mm are really what defines the m43 today, and glad I made the switch early to appreciate primes today. The rest of other mirrorless camps are still behind in lens range, except maybe pentax, but it's gonna be a heavier & bulkier system, and i have no pentax lenses.
Just sharing![]()
People, just remember that this is not a zero-sum game, i.e. if ILCs are good means SLRs are bad and vice versa.
They all have their proponents and opponents - I see it as choice; but again it does not mean if my choice is different from yours that either choice is better.
Thanks for the charts. Interesting, but they're not charts I would even dare to show at work. It's now Feb 2012, and the chart cuts off at Aug 2011? Hmm....
Besides, as Thom Hogan notes, is Nikon V1/J1 F-mount or mirrorless? Will the new Pentax be K-mount or mirrorless?
People, just remember that this is not a zero-sum game, i.e. if ILCs are good means SLRs are bad and vice versa.
They all have their proponents and opponents - I see it as choice; but again it does not mean if my choice is different from yours that either choice is better.
The question is, how do you define the market. For the past few years, the CAMERA market has been a huge negative, as people basically stop buying compact cameras. This may even lead to increased DSLR sales although overall camera sales fall (don't know, the numbers above only show market share). The new upgrade path may be phone -> DSLR, not no camera -> compact camera -> DSLR. So DSLR sales may have improved, and DSLR sales definitely gained market share within the whole camera market (stealing it from compact cameras).
These charts above are interesting because they are now questioning the upgrade path.
1) For those who start out with phones, find that they are into photography, and then looking to upgrade: are we getting phone -> mirrorless instead of phone -> DSLR?
2) For those who have already used DSLR, are we also beginning to see DSLR -> Mirrorless?
3) Finally, are mirrorless cameras now beginning to grow the market for cameras again, because people think that their size is compact enough, yet quality good enough, to warrant a upgrade from using camera-phones only?
The first two scenarios are 'zero-sum' improvements, with mirrorless taking market share from DSLR.The third question is the key question. If the answer is yes, that mirrorless is growing the market for cameras, then the gain in the mirrorless market is definitely not zero sum.
Please gentlemen, let's restrict our discussion to the new OMD and its merits. What I like to see in the next few weeks is more hands-on tests and photos. I love the design but it has to prove itself also.
ed9119, will you be getting a production model for testing shortly?
Anthony Lee said:Please gentlemen, let's restrict our discussion to the new OMD and its merits. What I like to see in the next few weeks is more hands-on tests and photos. I love the design but it has to prove itself also.
ed9119, will you be getting a production model for testing shortly?
Evilmerlin said:Wow! Olympus UK offering the grip for FREE to all those that pre-ordered the OM-D (Who is seriously going to call this the E-M5?)!! I wonder if Olympus Singapore can also do such an offer....
Olympus offers free grip with OM-D
Wow! Olympus UK offering the grip for FREE to all those that pre-ordered the OM-D (Who is seriously going to call this the E-M5?)!! I wonder if Olympus Singapore can also do such an offer....
Olympus offers free grip with OM-D