WHATS NEXT FOR M43, after Olympus, what future is left?

[Pitachu]

Here is a quote from someone who said Sigma will not making lenses for M43.
Now he said he saw potential in the M43 GM and Pen Series.
So it could only meant that Sigma is not making for M43 not because he saw no market potential but could not identify any unique lenses it can provide.
Anyway, Sigma did make the 150-600 for OMDS, which is currently the 2nd best super tele for birding.

Also note that he said the younger generation don't care if the sensor is big or small.

Yamaki, CEO of Sigma: "The younger generation bought compact fixed-lens cameras that don’t cost TOO much: cameras like the Ricoh GR, old digital cameras and so on. They don’t care if the sensor is small or big, if it has a 5 or 7-stop IBIS… they care that the cameras are fun, affordable and easy to use. I do believe cameras like the PEN-FII and the Lumix GM/GF series should be developed further and made so that they are easy and fun to use for the new generation of photographers"

Sigma CEO Kazuto Yamaki claims companies are missing out on making affordable cameras – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[one eye jack]

What Sigma CEO is implying is that camera manufacturers may price themselves out of the market. The cardinal rule of marketing is the customer will pay the price they can bear.

 

[ricohflex]

Yamaki Sigma CEO said something.
Observations:
• Young people do quickly grow up to become mature adults, then middle age and then to become old generation.
• The tastes and choices of the current Young Generation will change within a few years.
• When young people become mature adults and get well paying jobs, they will be able to afford more costly cameras and accessories.
• Adults will start to care about the sensor size, brand image, etc of the camera.
• That is when they start building a Camera System - and become a die hard fan. Usually they will become locked into a system of their own choice. Due to sunken costs and the high cost barrier of changing systems.

• This is why camera manufacturers very sensibly make low priced entry level camera bodies to introduce Young Generation into their "Mount" + "System". Canon and Nikon wisely make APS-C bodies with their respective RF Full Frame mount and Z Full Frame mount. The Canon R10, R50, R100 series + Nikon Z30, Z50.

• Mature adults will have their own social environment of like-minded friends and photo clubs - which reinforces their loyalty to a particular brand over the years.

• Price psychology is complex. Sometimes marketing helps to sell a camera. There are people who buy a camera BECAUSE it is very expensive. If the same exact thing was dirt cheap, they do not want it. The very expensive camera is a status symbol and an affirmation to the owner that he has "arrived" in wealth and social standing.

 

[Pitachu]

The points under Observations are @ricohflex observations and not Yamaki observations.

Young People > Mature Adults > Older Generation......... you are talking of 30 to 40 years gap.

If Nikon is to wait for people like me to use my Nikon F Mount lenses which I bought 30 years ago on their latest Mirrorless, Nikon (or any manufacturer) would have close down before 30 years LOL. I cannot imagine Nikon or any camera manufacturers announce to their shareholders to wait 30 years for their current young generation of users to buy their latests mirrorless cameras. There may not even be mirrorless cameras 30 years later!!!!!!

Yamaki Sigma CEO said something.
Observations:
• Young people do quickly grow up to become mature adults, then middle age and then to become old generation.
• The tastes and choices of the current Young Generation will change within a few years.
• When young people become mature adults and get well paying jobs, they will be able to afford more costly cameras and accessories.
• Adults will start to care about the sensor size, brand image, etc of the camera.
• That is when they start building a Camera System - and become a die hard fan. Usually they will become locked into a system of their own choice. Due to sunken costs and the high cost barrier of changing systems.

• This is why camera manufacturers very sensibly make low priced entry level camera bodies to introduce Young Generation into their "Mount" + "System". Canon and Nikon wisely make APS-C bodies with their respective RF Full Frame mount and Z Full Frame mount. The Canon R10, R50, R100 series + Nikon Z30, Z50.

• Mature adults will have their own social environment of like-minded friends and photo clubs - which reinforces their loyalty to a particular brand over the years.

• Price psychology is complex. Sometimes marketing helps to sell a camera. There are people who buy a camera BECAUSE it is very expensive. If the same exact thing was dirt cheap, they do not want it. The very expensive camera is a status symbol and an affirmation to the owner that he has "arrived" in wealth and social standing.

 

[Pitachu]

There is no free lunch. Every camera format has to have a compromise when it tries to offer the same benefits of another format.
Full Frame format Sony tried to offer compact size like M43 and as a result try to bundle together with a pancake 28-60mm lenses with poor image quality.
Sony then try to offer compact Primes but can only call them G and not G Master. This means that you cannot have the quality of G-Master lenses if you want compact lenses to pair with compact full frame bodies.

Then Sony tried to offer 120FPS like the OM-1 with the global shutter, but Image quality has to be compromised.
And this happens to Nikon Z6iii too, when it tries to offer 120FPS. (see articles below).

Not that M43 format do not have compromise.
It has a smaller sensor with a 20% lower resolution than FF 120FPS cameras and maybe 1-2 stop dynamic range which is most of the time not being used.
But for M43 users, these are much more acceptable than FF have to compromise on image quality to get 120FPS.

Something I just noticed

https://www.dpreview.com/news/8412798138/early-testing-suggests-nikon-z6-iii-pays-a-price-for-its-speed

https://www.dpreview.com/articles/6717086661/sony-a9-iii-image-quality-dynamic-range-analysis

 

[ricohflex]

MFT sensor format is dying/dead.
If it had a future, it would have a respectable worldwide market share.
MFT has so little that it cannot be shown on the chart.

MFT market share looks likely to decrease further as years go by.
Do not even try to compare image quality of MFT with Full Frame or Medium Format.
It would be an exercise in silliness.

The world is at cross roads.
UK has a new PM.
France far right has surged in votes.
Philippines vs China in SCS tension.
China real estate and shadow banking have crashed.
Myanmar has a bitter civil war.
US has a president who fumbled in debate.
US national debt is 34 Trillion.
Ukraine lost many battles and is in trouble.
Ships have to sail past Cape of Good hope to avoid Houthi attacks in Red Sea.
Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore are stuck at the ISS, as their Boeing Starliner has malfunctions.

And here we are wondering about cameras as a leisurely hobby.

How lucky we are.

 

[Pitachu]

Precisely. Don't compare between formats and don't compare their market share.

I always treat my MFT, Full Frame, Drone, Insta 360 and GoPro as all separate systems.
For example, I have never even considered using any other system except my GoPro for mountain biking.
And I only use Full Frame for my Portrait photography.

So market share is totally irrelevant. It's like also including GoPro into the comparison and say that it is less than 1% of market share.

Do not even try to compare image quality of MFT with Full Frame or Medium Format.
It would be an exercise in silliness.

 

[one eye jack]

@ricohflex, steady poon pee pee, wah you so current on world affairs.

MFT sensor format is dying/dead.
If it had a future, it would have a respectable worldwide market share.
MFT has so little that it cannot be shown on the chart.

MFT market share looks likely to decrease further as years go by.
Do not even try to compare image quality of MFT with Full Frame or Medium Format.
It would be an exercise in silliness.

The world is at cross roads.
UK has a new PM.
France far right has surged in votes.
Philippines vs China in SCS tension.
China real estate and shadow banking have crashed.
Myanmar has a bitter civil war.
US has a president who fumbled in debate.
US national debt is 34 Trillion.
Ukraine lost many battles and is in trouble.
Ships have to sail past Cape of Good hope to avoid Houthi attacks in Red Sea.
Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore are stuck at the ISS, as their Boeing Starliner has malfunctions.

And here we are wondering about cameras as a leisurely hobby.

How lucky we are.

 

[one eye jack]

CIPA reported shipments of cameras are picking up after a long time in 2024.

Thread views have crossed 104k.

 

[ricohflex]

DSC in the acronym used above stands for digital still camera.
Which probably means it excludes industrial non-hobby digital video cameras { CCTV + surveillance cameras}.
DSC will exclude the cameras inside mobile phones.

Nowadays many consumer grade digital still cameras can also take very good video.
Which blurs the definition of DSC.

Guess DSC excludes Pro-Video cinema cameras - like Arriflex for example.

Guess the main manufacturing countries for consumer digital still cameras in 2024 are
Japan
Germany
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia ( Fuji X-E4 )
Anyone I missed out?

A very short list out of 195 countries in the world.

South Korea has the capability to make DSC. But they make more money making mobile phones Samsung & LG.
Taiwan ROC (whether it is a country depends on your point of view) has the capability to make DSC. But they are world leaders in semi-conductor chips (TSMC). They got more profitable things to make, than cameras.

Did you notice that except for Germany, most of the countries listed are in North East Asia and South East Asia?
Somewhere in there is a lesson.
East Asian countries were described as having the highest average IQ.


Not easy to make a modern advanced digital still camera. And keep manufacturing costs low so as to make a profit.
Only a few countries can handle it. With much financial help & transfer of technology from Japan.
Japan & Germany are the main drivers of technical advancement in DSC.

For DSC manufacturing prowess ( and teaching other countries how to ), Japan is the main driver.

 

[Pitachu]

I remembered those days where compact Digital Still Cameras were being "dumped".
Was at a IT Show and Fujifilm 12mp compact cameras $180 buy 1 get 1 free (that is $90 each).
Yeah I found a friend to share and got 1.
The last 5 years manufacturers were focusing on mid to high end digital cameras.
Sony has not updated its used to be very popular RX100 VII for 5 years!!!!!
Olympus gave up its Pen series and Panasonic gave up its GM series which Robin rave about.
Canon gave up its EOS-V series and so on and so on.

Mobile phones as cameras has probably reached its peak and plateau off.
Many users of different brands, Apple Samsung etc commented new version has not much difference.

Maybe that is why users are starting to look at compact cameras that can offer more control and creative controls like the X100VI.
Or maybe even the Panasonic S9 where one can tweak the LUT. Someone just told me that tweaking out a custom LUT is gaining popularity.
Manufacturers are now trying very hard to look at the current trend to innovate things which appeal to the market.
There is even a chance that M43 may gain popularity again now that the highest megapixel is no longer the priority
(most popular camera in Japan last month is the Sony A7C ii whereas alternative high resolution versoin A7CR is not even in top 20)
Looks like most people taking photos realized 33mp and below is more than enough (looking at the top cameras being sold).

Just sharing my thoughts on a lazy Sunday

 

[Pitachu]

Sometimes I just do not know what the engineers at Manufacturers are thinking.
Panasonic did a good job in coming out with the the M43 G9ii and GH7.

However, when it released the S9, I was really aghast that it pair it with a 26mm F8 body cap lenses.
Why? Just to make the Full Frame S9 feels like a M43 Mirrorless when a lenses is mounted?
I was equally aghast when Sony release the 28-60 pancake lenses to make their new A7C looks compact like M43 cameras.
I tested it at a Sony store and true enough it image quality is inferior to my EM5iii with my PanaLeica 12-60 lenses.
The Panasonic S9 with the body cap lenses definitely will provide an even worse image quality.
Plus: How can it be a fun camera when the lenses is manual focus? (I don't get any fun doing manual focus)

Come on Full Frame manufacturers, just be what you are and not try to be a M43 setup.
M43 has it's unique strengths and features, like being able to pair with smaller but high IQ lenses.

Don't get me wrong. I still purchase the compact A7CR but I don't use the pancake or compact primes.
I use it for wide aperture lenses for bokeh and ultra wide lenses which are limiting for M43 cameras.

Panasonic announces 26mm F8 body-cap manual lens and trails 18-40mm

Panasonic has announced a manual focus, fixed aperture 26mm F8 lens to go with the S9, it's also said it's working on an 18-40mm F4.5-6.3 wide-angle zoom.

www.dpreview.com

 

[JW73]

Sometimes I just do not know what the engineers at Manufacturers are thinking.
Panasonic did a good job in coming out with the the M43 G9ii and GH7.

However, when it released the S9, I was really aghast that it pair it with a 26mm F8 body cap lenses.
Why? Just to make the Full Frame S9 feels like a M43 Mirrorless when a lenses is mounted?
I was equally aghast when Sony release the 28-60 pancake lenses to make their new A7C looks compact like M43 cameras.
I tested it at a Sony store and true enough it image quality is inferior to my EM5iii with my PanaLeica 12-60 lenses.
The Panasonic S9 with the body cap lenses definitely will provide an even worse image quality.
Plus: How can it be a fun camera when the lenses is manual focus? (I don't get any fun doing manual focus)

Come on Full Frame manufacturers, just be what you are and not try to be a M43 setup.
M43 has it's unique strengths and features, like being able to pair with smaller but high IQ lenses.

Don't get me wrong. I still purchase the compact A7CR but I don't use the pancake or compact primes.
I use it for wide aperture lenses for bokeh and ultra wide lenses which are limiting for M43 cameras.

Panasonic announces 26mm F8 body-cap manual lens and trails 18-40mm

Panasonic has announced a manual focus, fixed aperture 26mm F8 lens to go with the S9, it's also said it's working on an 18-40mm F4.5-6.3 wide-angle zoom.

www.dpreview.com

No choice because the name/branding Full frame sells. Mass buyers feel safe with bigger sensor without thinking what lens to match and the issue with the high cost of good FF lens costs will pop out later when one is building up the system.

Micro Four Thirds is Hard for Those With Low Camera Literacy to Understand: Panasonic

Those with "low camera literacy" find it hard to understand Micro Four Thirds, Panasonic says.

petapixel.com

 

[one eye jack]

Again photography enthusiasts do not understand what the target users S9 is designed for and expecting every camera to be for the enthusiasts which manufacturers have already catered for.

Read the dp article. S9 is a SOCIAL MEDIA camera! And it is marketed to the younger generation who only know photography with smartphone. Naturally they feel excitement using retro vintage film cameras with vintage manual focus lenses. But photography enthusiasts quickly criticise the image quality of said lenses without accepting the fact S9 is not meant for them.

Young people do not care if lenses are sharp at 200% nor mind if focus is manual which they find charming and do not have near sightedness of aging photography enthusiasts.

On the costs of fullframe, back in film days where everything is 35mm fullframe apart from medium and large format cameras there are 3 party lens manufacturers who make cheap lenses but in general are not of the same quality of the native brands ones at much lower prices. Today even 3rd. party lenses are good or even better than name brand lenses. So are their prices!

Photography is an expensive hobby now but for the knowledgeable photographer whether you prefer a mirrorless or dSLR one can setup a system that will not break the bank.Sure the performance with last generation dSLR or vintage lenses is not fast and clinically sharp and slow it has output that has character which is missing in modern lenses. If you want everything on the cutting edge of tech then pay the price or have fun using lenses that are a bargain and fun too. And you know where to look.

 

[ricohflex]

Panasonic employee Shiomi Noriaki talking nonsense.
No wonder he is only a section chief and not the CEO.
Long before he was born, the people who have high camera literacy were already in Zeiss and Leica making full frame cameras.

To insinuate that youngsters are dumb and therefore prefer to buy Full Frame - instead of MFT.
This is a baseless excuse for the dismal failure of MFT worldwide.

Top Management at Panasonic gave directives that S9 must be Full Frame.
For obvious reasons realizing the trend of what consumers want.
If Shiomi Noriaki is unhappy about it that the S9 was not MFT, he can quit Panasonic.

 

[Pitachu]

This could be the reason why OM and Panasonic is ignoring the compact M43 cameras for the time being.

 

[ricohflex]

Olympus Camera Division wound up its business. Parent company sold it to JIP.
JIP created a subsidiary named OJ holdings Ltd, which in turn created OMDS in October 2020.
OJ holdings Ltd hold 95% of shares in OMDS. Olympus parent company holds 5% of shares in OMDS.

In my opinion the main reason for existence of OMDS is not to sell cameras.
JIP/OJ Holdings Ltd/OMDS exist as a slick maneuver to sidestep strict labour laws in Japan, when one winds up a company.
This is in contrast to the American way of Hire + Fire of workers in a company.

The pretence wayang show will continue for about a decade after 2020.
Eventually OMDS operations will be slowly scaled down and quietly disappear from the scene.
OMDS not releasing new much improved camera models is entirely expected. Selling cameras is not OMDS over-arching mission.

As for Panasonic, the latest emphasis by Panasonic over the S9 shows how important Full Frame is to the company.
Panasonic flew in more than 100 YouTubers / Influencers to trumpet the S9. Spent a ton of money.
But the Micro Four Thirds GH7 was neglected and put to one side like an abandoned baby.

The message by Panasonic is unmistakable.

 

[one eye jack]

He is a trained electronics engineer and based on his experience, to incorporate the latest technologies into a compact camera is not easy. The processor needs to be powerful so it uses more power hence a bigger battery is needed like S9. Shooting video generates heat which a small body is not efficient to dissipate and limits time duration without active cooling with fan and impossible to implement in a small body. These are the main challenges and button layout will be limited by real estate unless everything is accessed by display screen. Then the miniaturisation will be expensive which increase selling price. Finally how many cameras will it sell in the market. A business decision that manufacturers think is not viable.

In conclusion a new compact camera with the latest tech is not going to materialise in the foreseeable future. I think unless there is breakthrough in chip technology that is, Further miniaturisation in semiconductor technology and low power things are not going to change.

This could be the reason why OM and Panasonic is ignoring the compact M43 cameras for the time being.

 

[Pitachu]

@ricohflex,
1) JIP is a investment company. Do you think it will throw money into a venture like OMDS just to wind it up? WIll the shareholders allow?
2) OMDS has continued to improve the OM-1 and also came up with the 90mm Macro, licensed with SIgma on the 150-600 etc. Does it really have to do all this if the plan is to wind up the company?
3) Panasonic is not sidestepping the GH7! Panasonic spent years developing it. You really think they are going to drop it just like that. It is not advertising as heavily as the S9 because it is a niche market product. There are enough videographers I knew who is excited by it, but people like me is NOT.
4) On the contrary, Panasonic knew it may not even succeed with the S9, (looking at the lenses roadmap.) Full Frame market is a Red Ocean and Social Media Market has even more interesting alternatives eg. DJI Pocket & OSMO, Insta 360 360go & Goetc etc. After having a ILC mirrorless which can also do social media (I can post photos from my Sony 7CR in less than 20secs compared to S9 30 secs), I would definitely not get a mirrorless camera for social media!. If you google there are more youtubers who rave about the DJI Pocket or Insta360 Go than the S9 or any other mirrorless for social media.

Olympus Camera Division wound up its business. Parent company sold it to JIP.
JIP created a subsidiary named OJ holdings Ltd, which in turn created OMDS in October 2020.
OJ holdings Ltd hold 95% of shares in OMDS. Olympus parent company holds 5% of shares in OMDS.

In my opinion the main reason for existence of OMDS is not to sell cameras.
JIP/OJ Holdings Ltd/OMDS exist as a slick maneuver to sidestep strict labour laws in Japan, when one winds up a company.
This is in contrast to the American way of Hire + Fire of workers in a company.

The pretence wayang show will continue for about a decade after 2020.
Eventually OMDS operations will be slowly scaled down and quietly disappear from the scene.
OMDS not releasing new much improved camera models is entirely expected. Selling cameras is not OMDS over-arching mission.

As for Panasonic, the latest emphasis by Panasonic over the S9 shows how important Full Frame is to the company.
Panasonic flew in more than 100 YouTubers / Influencers to trumpet the S9. Spent a ton of money.
But the Micro Four Thirds GH7 was neglected and put to one side like an abandoned baby.

The message by Panasonic is unmistakable.

 

[ricohflex]

Actually JIP did not have to throw any money when the Olympus Camera Division was "sold" to them.

This is a quote from admin of photorumours.com.
The emphasis color font and bold face is by me.
Quote {
That’s right. The news out of Japan is that this is NOT a sale, but a divestment at loss. Olympus will have to pay JIP to take imaging, basically giving them the consumer patent portfolio in exchange. The reason for the press release is Olympus has to divulge now that it will be paying cash for JIP to take the assets. That warns shareholders. This was. OT a bout the loyal consumer. Anyone who thinks this is a deep pockets investor seeking a new product line, or this is an “under new management” improvement needs to know exactly what JIP is as a company. They exist to help Olympus get rid of their consumer Imaging portfolio entirely.
} UnQuote

Why? Look at the losses suffered for so long.
Olympus Camera Division was a hot potato that the parent company could not wait to get rid of.
Even the OM1 (and some lenses) were products already created under the R&D of Olympus Camera Division before winding up.


But all this is water under the bridge. Now is 2024.
Has OMDS succeeded to increase world wide market share from less than 1% to say for example, 25%?
No.


Credit: photorumors.com