WHATS NEXT FOR M43, after Olympus, what future is left?

[ricohflex]

This is Japan only market data and only as surveyed by BCN.
Which is incomplete (i.e. not 100% of stores) and subject to various unknown assumptions and statistical parameters.\

As expected MFT OMDS and MFT Lumix are subsumed into "Others" being too small a market share.
This is only in Japan.
If worldwide market share is considered, MFT OMDS and MFT Lumix market share will be almost negligible i.e. near zero.

Among the 10 top sellers, only 1 is Full Frame. Sony A7C II
1 is MFT. Lumix G100D
8 are APS-C.

Japan entered into recession in 2023. Bad times means less money to buy top tier products.
APS-C is in sweet spot. Not too expensive (e.g. Full Frame). Not too lousy (e.g. MFT).

So remember Lumix and OMDS saying they will never build APS-C cameras?
Good.
They wrote their own death sentence.

Canon, Nikon and Sony are much superior and smarter.
All 3 make Full Frame and APS-C digital mirorless ILC.


Credit: diyphotography.net

Top 10 sellers (only in Japan mkt and only surveyed by BCN)

1. Sony ZV-E10
2. Canon EOS R50
3. Canon EOS R100
4. Sony A6400
5. Nikon Z30
6. Fujifilm X-T50
7. Sony A7C II
8. Nikon Zfc
9. Panasonic Lumix G100D
10. Nikon Z50

 

[Pitachu]

@ricohflex, what happened to your stand that Full Frame is the best and Olympus should have switched to manufacturing Full Frame?
Now that the top 10 cameras 9 are APS-C, you switched your stand to APS-C and say that it is the sweet spot?

Actually, this could be a switch of market trend and preferences.
As I mentioned in my earlier post, more and more people realized that Full Frame format is actually not the most important criteria for their choice of camera.
There is nothing wrong with APS-C, just that Nikon and Canon have to invest in providing lenses for their APS-C cameras.
Using bigger, heavier and more expensive lenses on a APS-C body defeats the purpose of getting an APS-C body in the first place.

On the other hand, Fujifilm, OMDS and Panasonic already have a very wide range of APS-C and M43 lenses at their disposal.

This is Japan only market data and only as surveyed by BCN.
Which is incomplete (i.e. not 100% of stores) and subject to various unknown assumptions and statistical parameters.\

As expected MFT OMDS and MFT Lumix are subsumed into "Others" being too small a market share.
This is only in Japan.
If worldwide market share is considered, MFT OMDS and MFT Lumix market share will be almost negligible i.e. near zero.

Among the 10 top sellers, only 1 is Full Frame. Sony A7C II
1 is MFT. Lumix G100D
8 are APS-C.

Japan entered into recession in 2023. Bad times means less money to buy top tier products.
APS-C is in sweet spot. Not too expensive (e.g. Full Frame). Not too lousy (e.g. MFT).

So remember Lumix and OMDS saying they will never build APS-C cameras?
Good.
They wrote their own death sentence.

Canon, Nikon and Sony are much superior and smarter.
All 3 make Full Frame and APS-C digital mirorless ILC.


Credit: diyphotography.net

Top 10 sellers (only in Japan mkt and only surveyed by BCN)

1. Sony ZV-E10
2. Canon EOS R50
3. Canon EOS R100
4. Sony A6400
5. Nikon Z30
6. Fujifilm X-T50
7. Sony A7C II
8. Nikon Zfc
9. Panasonic Lumix G100D
10. Nikon Z50

 

[Pitachu]

Compared to Mirrorless market share in 2023, notice that Fujifilm and "Others" category have increased their market share in 2024.
Fujifilm do not manufacture Full Frame.

"Others Category" are mainly Panasonic, OMDS, Leica as Pentax, Ricoh etc are hardly seen nowadays in shops.
Leica hardly sell full frame (their SL series). It is their more compact M series and Q series that is popular.
Half of Panasonic sales and almost all of OMDS sales are from M43 cameras.

Looking at market trends, it is a wise decision for OMDS to stay in its niche M43 market instead of venturing into Full Frame.

This was the global mirrorless camera market share in 2023: Canon 41,2% Sony 32.1% Nikon 13.2%…can Canon CEO he hopes to stop Sony chase! – sonyalpharumors

www.sonyalpharumors.com

 

[one eye jack]

Canon R1 has received a lot of hate even before it is available in shops. Of course this is clickbait but it does contain useful info like canon claims because of global supply issues like Fujifilm cannot fulfill all pre orders and is going to produce 3700 units of R1 per month...really? Got people buy meh. Canon also going to offer/loan 100 units R1s to photographers at Paris Olympics for free.

Can Canon protect and remain at the top of worldwide sales with Sony close on its heals.

Sony alpha in action. Can R1 do it!

 

[ricohflex]

About the 3rd video. Digress a bit from this thread topic. Since it is political, will keep it very brief. Moderator is free to delete comment, if felt necessary.
{{ No Secret Service protection agents (of any country) will allow a target person of an assassination, under their watch - to stand up in full view and expose himself ONCE AGAIN to more danger, just to POSE FOR PHOTOS with national flag in background. This is a No No. It CANNOT happen. Anywhere in the world.
How do the Secret Service protection agents know there is only 1 shooter? There could be more than 1, waiting to shoot.
This POSED PHOTO makes me feel the whole incident is highly scripted and manipulated. It looks very FAKE. }}

 

[Pitachu]

How did Canon the market leader lost its some of its market share to Sony, Fujifilm and Others (M43 + Leica)?

Canon basically focus on its Full Frame cameras, releasing only 4 RF-S lenses for its APSC cameras, expecting users to use its expensive and heavy RF lenses.
Why do users buy APS-C bodies in the first place, if they want to use Full Frame Lenses?

So when the market trend changes, Sony was fast to react by releasing several APS-C lenses for its ZV series (mainly APS-C).
Fujifilm benefited as all long it focus on APS-C instead of Full Frame.

And even OMDS benefited from the change in market trend to smaller cameras netting 3 out 10 top cameras for a certain period in 2023.

BCN ranking for 2023: Three OM Digital cameras made it into the top 10 of the best selling cameras of the year! – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[JW73]

M43 will at least around for another further 10-15 years. From my past 3 years observations in the bird photography scene, more are using the 150-400mmpro, 300mmf4 pro and 100-400mm from OM system. There are friends who own the sony system 600mm f4 lenses and still use the 150400mm pro as a alternative system or as a main.

 

[Pitachu]

Agreed! M43 cameras have a 2x crop factor, which is advantageous for long telephoto shorts, as it is able to multiply the range by 2 without reducing the F-stop by half.

For example, a 300mm F4 M43 lenses is equivalent to a 600mm F4 Full frame lenses.
Using a Full Frame system, if we put a 2x TC on a 300mm F4 lenses, it will become a 600mm F8 lenses.

Plus, shooting wildlife usually require features like pro-capture and high FPS, which is very difficult to implement on Full Frame System.
That is one of the reasons why the recently released Full Frame cameras Sony A9iii and Canon R1 reduce the resolution to 24mp.

For other areas of photography, M43 cameras have lost ground to Full Frame due to big brands advertising emphasis on high megapixel.
But as more photographers do post processing, they realized that higher megapixels, although may allow more cropping, can also be a challenge to process and store, and more often then not, they do not need so high a megapixel for the output they plan to produce.

For example, the Sony 7Cii (33mp) is much more popular than the 7CR (61mp), both cameras are compact full frame with almost similar features except for the resolution.

As the market started to realize that high resolution is not necessary the most desirable feature, the market slowly move back to APS-C and maybe even M43 bodies, to smaller form factor and lenses. This has been reflected in the sales data compiled by BCN.

M43 will at least around for another further 10-15 years. From my past 3 years observations in the bird photography scene, more are using the 150-400mmpro, 300mmf4 pro and 100-400mm from OM system. There are friends who own the sony system 600mm f4 lenses and still use the 150400mm pro as a alternative system or as a main.

 

[ricohflex]

ha ha
Wishful thinking.
Die hard fans of MFT are in an echo chamber where they cheer each other up with rah rah unrealistic messages.

This leads to silo thinking.
You cannot hold back technology progress.
Long ago I actually owned a 2MP Lumix camera. (since thrown away)

In that previous era, people with 2MP cameras were bitching about the new 4MP and 8MP cameras.
As in "why would anyone need more than 2MP?"
Hmm... sounds very familiar to the insistence by MFT die hard fans that the world should gravitate down to 20MP or 24MP.

Because MFT is incapable of anything beyond that. It is a bar MFT cannot cross.
Sorry, I think the world will move way beyond 24MP.
Just like computer hard drives were once 20 megabytes.

And now we have hard drives of many Terabytes.
Insisting that the whole world stagnate at 20 MB hard drives is just not being progressive.
Somewhat similar to saying cameras should be 20 MP or 24 MP.

"You don't need more MP than that" is a silly reason that we have heard before.
And there may be new players on the horizon, going into medium format.
Few brands like Fuji and Hasselblad already have 100MP camera models. That is just the natural progression. Technology will improve.

In a hobby like photography where most people buy cameras with their disposable income.
Do not talk about { This is ALL the MP that I would ever need }.
Most people buy stuff that they WANT. Not what they need. Otherwise today in 2024 most of us will be using mobile phone cameras only.

 

[Pitachu]

Sure, you can have cameras 100mp or more. Did everyone rush for it? Did you get one? Why?
Why did Sony A9iii and Canon R1 (both costing more than US$6000 move back to 24mp?

How do you use a 100mp image?
Even if you buy a expensive 8K TV to view your image, it only needs less than 34mp for 8K.
And how many people have printed 1,2m wide by 3m Ht images with 100mp?

The GFX100 Raw file is 210Mb!!!!
Imagine the storage on SD cards and HDD you need?
Can you think of any practical application where it helps most user to have 100mp?
What are they going to use it for, which cannot be done with 24mp?

My point is unless anyone have a need for it, most people WILL NOT want to shoot in 100mp!
Camera manufacturers already stopped focusing their ads on Higher and Higher megapixel.
From market survey they have already found that anything beyond 45mp is probably NOT PRACTICAL for most users.

M43 users are NOT silo thinkers and we did not say cameras should be 20mp or 24mp.
I am just saying the latest camera are 24mp because Full Frame manufacturers are NOT able to provide 120FPS RAW files with higher megapixel.
And from their market survey, they knew that most working photographers only need about 24mp.
Who is the Canon R1 for? Likely for Sports photographers to shoot and submit their photos for press release or printing.
Who is the Sony A9iii for? Probably the same and maybe outdoor portraits for extra high shutter speed sync
But, if any of these photographers ( need higher resolution, we just reach out for one.
Just like myself, I got a A7CR where I use whenever I need wider angles, deeper depth of field, or higher resolution.
M43 users like myself know how to use different tools for different tasks.

By the way, my M43 camera have a high resolution 80mp mode, but I have hardly used it, as I do not have any practical use for it.

@ricohflex, you are the one that has silo thinking living in a echo chamber, thinking Full Frame is a one size fit all and M43 should be removed from the market.
That is the same as saying GoPros are useless too, as the sensor is even smaller. And Full Frame can also be used like a GoPro. Try mounting your FF camera on a mountain bike or a surfboard. LOL. Is that practical?

ha ha
Wishful thinking.
Die hard fans of MFT are in an echo chamber where they cheer each other up with rah rah unrealistic messages.

This leads to silo thinking.
You cannot hold back technology progress.
Long ago I actually owned a 2MP Lumix camera. (since thrown away)

In that previous era, people with 2MP cameras were bitching about the new 4MP and 8MP cameras.
As in "why would anyone need more than 2MP?"
Hmm... sounds very familiar to the insistence by MFT die hard fans that the world should gravitate down to 20MP or 24MP.

Because MFT is incapable of anything beyond that. It is a bar MFT cannot cross.
Sorry, I think the world will move way beyond 24MP.
Just like computer hard drives were once 20 megabytes.

And now we have hard drives of many Terabytes.
Insisting that the whole world stagnate at 20 MB hard drives is just plain stupid.
As stupid as saying cameras should be 20 MP or 24 MP.

"You don't need more MP than that" is a silly reason that we have heard before.
And there may be new players on the horizon, going into medium format. 100MP or so.
That is just the natural progression.

 

[Pitachu]

Let's hope this will kick off in kickstarter.

1714 interested ppl want to fund x $1500 = US$2.5 million
should be enough to motivate OMDS to come up with the Pen-Fii!

I would definitely like to have one in my backpack as a backup camera cum street camera.

POLL confirms: Most 43rumors reader would back the Kickstarting of a new PEN-FII – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[ricohflex]

Some one informs that Panasonic's own latest report says this.
Is it time to kill Micro Four Thirds in Panasonic?
When they do kill MFT (not if) Panasonic still has Full Frame L mount. They should then make APS-C for their L mount.

Like Canon, Sony, Nikon do make APS-C cameras + Full Frame cameras for their own own respective RF, E and Z mounts.
Panasonic needs to replace several management personnel who are still devoted to MFT.
After they leave Panasonic, these people can start their own camera business making MFT cameras and lenses.

Since they like it so much. What is the difference?
The difference is that this time, they are going to lose their OWN money.
Not other people's money. Talk so big about MFT. They should put their money where their mouth is.

Panasonic camera sales down

 

[Pitachu]

@ricohflex I think there is something wrong with your comprehension or you are deliberately distorting the truth.
The article did not mention M43 or kill M43 Where did you get that?
The article is actually in line with earlier reports that Panasonic Digital Camera division is doing well but needs to streamline certain categories like Home Appliances.

Panasonic's issue when they introduce the full frame S9 is apparent: Lack of Choice for Lenses.
If Panasonic is going to switch to APS-C, the situation would be even worse, not only Lack of Lenses, but also loses the L-Mount lenses.
Panasonic has established itself relatively well with the G9ii and GH7. Why would it want to kill off these M43 products for APS-C.

Sony is currently too strong in the APS-C arena with its 6700, ZV-E10ii and wide range of lenses.
Nikon and Canon may be strong players in the Full Frame Arena, BUT even strong players like them are struggling to compete in the APS-C arena.
Their lack of commitment to producing APS-C lenses clearly shows.
Expecting users to use more expensive and heavier Full Frame lenses on APS-C bodies is really a joke. Who will do that?
Just like M43, the reason for choosing APS-C over Full Frame is have a more compact and lighter setup (body and lenses together).

Choice of Lenses is a very important factor for any sensor format! And M43, as a smaller sensor format camera system, offers a superbly wide range of SMALLER and LIGHTER lenses, native to the camera body, retaining full features without the use of any adapters (which generally drop in image quality).

M43 is not here to compete with Full Frame and APS-C. M43 is here to offer photographers an alternative for a smaller and lighter setup together with a 2x focal multiplier. M43 smaller sensor also enable the camera for faster processing like 120fps and other computational features, eg. built in ND & GND, Live Composite etc.

Some one informs that Panasonic's own latest report says this.
Is it time to kill Micro Four Thirds in Panasonic?
When they do kill MFT (not if) Panasonic still has Full Frame L mount. They should then make APS-C for their L mount.

Like Canon, Sony, Nikon do their own own mounts.
Panasonic needs to replace several management personnel who are still devoted to MFT.
After they leave Panasonic, these people can start their own camera business making MFT cameras and lenses.

Since they like it so much. What is the difference?
The difference is that this time, they are going to lose their OWN money.
Not other people's money. Talk so big about MFT. They should put their money where their mouth is.

Panasonic camera sales down

 

[Pitachu]

Not I say one..... guess which one is the best mirrorless camera for most people according to New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/best-mirrorless-camera/

 

[Pitachu]

Panasonic did a much better job with the m43 GH7 than the Full Frame S9.
No, I am not saying Full Frame or the S9 is no good.
There are just too many models of Full Frame Cameras out there to come out with a unique camera that meet the needs of certain users.
All the fanfare of the latest Nikon Z6iii, Canon R1, R5mk2 died down quickly, not that they are no good, but they are just another Full Frame Camera.

The GH7 on the other hand, like the OM-1, offered several unique features that meet the needs of certain users.

This should be the way M43 manufacturers should do, to keep identifying needs of certain users and offer camera models that latch on the benefits of M43 format to meet the needs of certain users. After all, M43 manufacturers should not just jump onto the bandwagon and come out another Full Frame camera. What users want is an alternative. Just like GoPro, DJI etc.... different cameras for different usage.

Lumix GH7 review by Techradar: “superb camera for content creators “ – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[ricohflex]

No chance.
Japan is in financial turmoil.
OMDS is technically a dead body (of former Olympus Camera Division) being artificially kept alive by life support machines in ICU.
MFT sector of Panasonic Lumix camera division is an unwanted segment as the company strives to go all in on Full Frame.
World wide market share for MFT is so low that they cannot be represented as a slice on the Pie Chart.
Probably less than 1%.
There is no sensible financial basis for them to continue along this MFT path, that has already been proven to be a total failure.

 

[Pitachu]

Where did you get your statistics from? The "others" category have shifted from 2% during covid to 5.5%, with Canon losing some market share.
The top 4 are Canon, Nikon, Sony, Fujifilm
"Others" categories include Panasonic, Olympus, Leica, Pentax.

People who are using Leica are mainly Leica Q and M series (manual focus) and not a lot.
Even Leica admitted that their Full Frame Mirrorless the SL series is not selling well.
Pentax users are even much lesser.

With the latest cameras OM-1ii, Panasonic G9ii and GH7, it is no surprise OMDS and Panasonic forms majority of the 5.5% market share!
Don't believe me? Go and attend some 3rd party camera workshops. You can easily find 1 or 2 OMDS / Panasonic user out of 20 participants, with Zero Pentax users and occasionally only 1 Leica user.

I have earlier stated that even at 1% market share, it is about US$200m annual revenue for OMDS.
And OMDS is now super lean with it's outsourced manufacturing model.

If you say there is no sensible financial basis for them to continue, you are like saying that 90% of the companies with less than US$200 annual revenue should be close down, including all the listed companies on 2nd board. And Leica with probably less than 1% market share as well. I think @ricohflex is the one that is not sensible. LOL

2023 mirrorless camera market share - Photo Rumors

Nikkei published the 2023 mirrorless camera market share from Techno System Research (I believe the numbers are just for the Japanese market the numbers are for the global market share): Canon 41,2% Sony 32.1% Nikon 13.2% FujiFilm 8% Other brands 5.5% Fierce competition for the top spot in the...

photorumors.com

No chance.
Japan is in financial turmoil.
OMDS is technically a dead body (of former Olympus Camera Division) being artificially kept alive by life support machines in ICU.
MFT sector of Panasonic Lumix camera division is an unwanted segment as the company strives to go all in on Full Frame.
World wide market share for MFT is so low that they cannot be represented as a slice on the Pie Chart.
Probably less than 1%.
There is no sensible financial basis for them to continue along this MFT path, that has already been proven to be a total failure.

 

[one eye jack]

No point ding donging back and forth. To understand Japan's camera industry one must understand economics ( how Japan came about to be ) and Japanese culture. We are no different and should should learn from it.

@10:24

 

[Pitachu]

Japanese Companies generally took a long time to change.
They seemed to want everyone to follow the way they do things after they found success in that way.
I remembered it took Nikon a long time to change and catch up after Canon overtook them.

Although I am glad Olympus retained M43, Olympus could have ventured into other sensor formats in the beginning when digital SLR first started. I guess Olympus stakeholders do not want to invest in several sensor formats like Sony but instead just make use of its existing resources and focus on developing the compact Pen and lenses that latch on its 2x focal multiplier advantage.

But it is really too late now for Olympus or any manufacturer to add Full Frame in their product line now. Even Canon is finding it challenging defending its market share of mainly full frame from dropping and Full Frame manufacturers are running out of ideas of what to include in their next line up to prevent users from adopting smaller sensor formats.

 

[Pitachu]

The BCN ranking, which compiles actual sales figures from 2,400 electronics and camera retailers and online shops nationwide, has summarized the sales situation and price fluctuations in the mirrorless market. These are the July 2024 Mirrorless interchangeable-lens camera sales share by manufacturer:

1. Sony: 49.7%
2. Canon: 20.2%
3. Nikon: 12.6%
4. Fujifilm (not mentioned in article but looks like something around 7%)
5. Panasonic (not mentioned in article but looks like something around 6%)
   (NOTE: At least 50% of sales is from Panasonic M43 cameras, GH7 and G9ii).
6. OM Digital (not mentioned in article but looks like something around 4%)

Looks like mkt share of M43 cameras is about 7% (4% from OM and about 3% from Panasonic).

Analysis of the Japanese market in July: Sony has 49.7 percent sales share! – sonyalpharumors

www.sonyalpharumors.com