1. I never said HDB should sell at market price. I said HDB should sell at below market price, but not that much below that it would cause the resale flat prices to come crashing down.
2. Supply and demand applies everywhere, even for HDB. Why did the Tampines designer flats have so many applicants despite the high price? Why are Jurong West extension flats empty? The former, because of demand. The latter, because HDB (unfortunately) is not that market oriented, so they refused to cut prices enough to move the flats.
The demand curve is not always linear. For some products, demand is so weak that no matter what you do, no one will buy. Hence companies have to write off inventories from time to time.
3. I don't believe in HDB's mission any more. In the early years, to help people move from kampong to city, yes. Nowadays, with designer flats, etc? To me they are just another housing developer with a side mission of making housing more "affordable". As far as MBT is concerned, "affordable" just means that your monthly instalments are less than 40% of your household income.
4. I still don't think HDB can sell flats at (say) $100k if the resale price is $400k. That would cause the market to crash. The govt would be using its powers unjustly to acquire land cheaply and sell flats cheaply. It would be unfair competition to the private sector developers. It could even affect the private condo market, bring prices there down. With things the way they are, who will suffer? Those who have sunk millions into their condos will suffer, for sure. As well as those who have sunk millions into their HDB resale flats.
5. I just sold my Bishan 5-room flat at $400k. I made a loss because I bought it for $402k and did renovations. This is an 18-year old resale unit. $400k-- willing buyer, willing seller. Go check the latest prices in Marine Parade, high floor, sea view, etc. and you'll know what the prices are today. Queenstown EA's are selling for $500-600k. That's the reality people are willing to pay for.
6. Public housing is not a basic necessity. Not like healthcare, where you'll die if you don't get treatment. Frankly speaking, nobody forces you to buy a flat. And nobody force you to buy from HDB. Yes, you want to move out, but in other countries people rent, some rent for a very long time.
A lot of first-timers buy on the resale market. Why? Location is the prime reason. Not everybody wants to live in Sengkang/Bt Panjang. A lot of people prefer the mature estates, where there are no more new HDB flats. Thus the govt came up with the CPF housing grant to help people purchase resale flats.
Public housing prices are not inelastic. The resale market has moved up and down as many are well aware. Back in 96, Bishan EA's were selling for $700k. Now they are selling for $400-500k. That is a lot of price movement in action.
That is not to say HDB prices are elastic. They as sellers decide what price they want to sell. Unlike private developers, they are not so worried about P&L, inventory turnover, etc. So they choose not to cut prices. This has nothing to do with regulation, and everything to do with holding power. There is no regulation in Singapore that says HDB must sell prices at $X psf. Only that the CEO of HDB decided he doesn't want to cut prices of flats in Jurong West extension.
So the HDB prices are higher than what you as a first-timer were hoping for. I think the question to ask yourself is, is it realistic to expect HDB to sell flats at $100k when the market price is $400k or $500k? And even if HDB were to do that, no doubt first-timers like you would be happy, but what about all your neighbours living in their resale flats?
The sad thing is that most of those people who buy direct sell after 5 years to lock in the gains so that they can "upgrade" to condos. They don't keep the flat over the "generations". Some people even do it a second time, to try to get one more bite of the cherry.
Using your example, the resale price of HDB flat is far more complicated than just adding the CPF housing grant to HDB's direct selling price. However, the point it makes is clear-- that the market takes one of the cues from HDB prices. So if HDB were to sell the recent Tampines flats at $100k, all the Tampines prices will come crashing down.
Who will suffer?
"Public housing is a highly, if not a completely monopolized market."... True technically since only there is only one seller called HDB. However, HDB doesn't exist in a vacuum, there is no way they can sell more than what people are willing to pay, and they cannot sell more expensive than the resale market, and certainly not more than private condos.
In other words, HDB's ability to set prices is limited too.
In my case, I bought my flat on the resale market 7 years ago at $402k. I heard (but not confirmed) that HDB originally sold these flats in 1988 at $120k (or was it $220k?). The point is that, 18 years ago, resale market prices for 5-room flats in Bishan was around $200k, so HDB priced it at $120k. 11 years after the direct buyer got it for $120k, he could sell it to me at $402k. That was the market price in 1999. It was not HDB who set the resale market price. It was set by buyers and sellers in the resale market.
Now, HDB is building a new flat at the junction ofBishan St 11 and St 13, near mine. Do you think they can or should sell the new flats at $120k, when the market price of a flat in Bishan is $400k? On the other hand, if they were to sell it at $400k, how many people do you think will queue and ballot and buy, when they can get it immediately on the resale market?
You are right about one thing-- that whatever the price HDB sets, we have to take if we want to buy their flats. Not because they are a monopoly, but because they are the cheapest, and we are just price takers. So even if we don't think that $300k is a reasonable price for a 5-room flat, we still have no choice, because the resale flats will cost us even more, don't mention condo.
"Reasonable" or not depends on who you're talking to. A lot of Hongkongers bought flats here simply because they were so cheap compared to HK. On the other hand, we have people here complaining about the price of flats here and saying that $500k can get big bungalow in a neighbouring country. But sadly, that is the reality of property prices in a small country. If you think HDB owes it to the people to make 5-room flats at $100k, then you'd better vote in a different government.
Dear Waileong:
I have read your posts, and have noted your stand point of HDB should sell its flats at market price. However, this not a simple case of determining the flat transaction price, based purely on supply and demand.
Can I first identify with you that HDB is public service body and its mission is to supply and provide affordable housing to the people?
What most of us (commoners) are asking is not for HDB to sell flat below the cost, but to sell it a reasonable price that can be sustained over generations. There are a lot of reports on people facing negative equity and suffering from asset rich but cash poor syndrome.
I foresee that when this generation of people goes into retirement, the property bubble will burst, because these folks will have to sell their properties to finance their retirement.
So, should we starts looking into this problem and find the softest solution?
You mentioned that the reselling price in Marine Parade is $500K.
I belief this is one case off, and we can’t simply use this transacted price to determine the market reselling price. This case could be one of those cash back transaction. The buyers and seller purposely jack up the selling price to get a bigger loan.
Public housing is unlike Condos and bungalows, the former is a basic necessity and the later is a luxury item. When we apply economic principle here, we say that Public housing is inelastic. Meaning that even the price is unreasonable, we (commoner) will still have to buy and absorb most of the burden. So can you see that is not basic supply and demand?
Secondly, Public housing is a highly, if not a completely monopolized market. Seller calls the shot and they in turn control the resell market. For example, when I sell a new flat at 150k, the resell flat will automatically be transacted at 190k because of the 40k subsidy. When I push up the price of a new flat to 200k, it is not hard to guess the price of the resell flat, isn’t it? So who is the one controlling the price?
If supply and demand really applies in Singapore public housing, I would have expected the prices of those units in Jurong Extension to come crashing down. After completion for more than 5 years, most of the units are still empty. Taking into consideration the effect of depreciation and the flats have a limited life of 95 years left, what should be the selling price now? Again, this shows that the market is highly regulated.
Now it is about breaking this sticky price problem, Lets try to work it out here.
It is not nice to suggest migration because I belong to this land and my root is here.
Also those who can afford to migrate, have left and more will be leaving.
Those who are poor, like me, are waiting to cross the bridge when life no longer permits us to stay.