definitely a good time for newcomers to join in the market. It's getting harder and harder to tell the difference between a 5k portfolio and a 600$ one anyway these days..
Agree fully with your first part. But for the second, not quite. There is really some difference, but I would say going digital has helped many join the bandwagon of being a wedding photographer.
With digital, it makes being a wedding photographer a lot easier than the film days. To the point that some of these so-called pro photographers simply produce screwed-up shots which they don't even know are that! But to be fair, not all are like that of course.
As to whether or not the bad economy will affect the choice of photographer, it's hard to say I think. Anything goes. But I tend to think, yes, generally.
Anyway, I find couples overe here tend to spend a lot of unnecessary time and money preparing for the wedding. For eg, choosing a photographer, how many tables to hold banquet, where to hold it, etc etc. Then there are the quarrels, misunderstandings between parents/relatives on who to invite or not to, etc etc. Aiyoh, it's sad really. What for??
As for the photos, from each and every one of the couples I speak to, friends and colleagues, all the photo albums very quickly ended up stored in some deep corner of the room, and will hardly be referred to from there on. Like it or not, it's a one day event, life goes on, and there are many other matters to attend to in life.
So, yes, my guess is, with the bad economy, I feel a higher percentage of couples will try to take cheaper photographers who can produce just decent shots.