Your views on the current surging property market

[alantkh]

I don't need to quote any statistics to you going by your book, if you think they are wrong, please quote me the stats. Otherwise I will simply just give bare assertions as you have done. Along the same vein, since you only dispute China, (as I did with HK) the rest are deemed accepted.

I see you are no longer reasonable. forget it.

 

[alantkh]

What actually make people think that people who stay in publlic/govn housing is as poor in slum or cause polarising issue :sweat: I do know quite a lot of people driving expensive car and stay in public housing, whether in Singapore or Malaysia. There are alway people take advantage of cheaper pubulic housing. Stay in cheape public housing won't make people poorer, but it make people cash rich which may make better use their cash in investment in other thing, rather than now all the money are in we all know whose hand...

ya because in singapore hdb is worth quite a lot. If our government decouples the private and public housing prices, people will find private housing much more expensive than public ones. then how can we achieve our dreams of owning a private housing?

u know how many singaporeans use hdb as a stepping stone to own condo? how they do it? because of the good resale value of hdb. would you rather want your hdb to be cheap and stay cheap forever and see condo prices go up every year?

it is totally illogical.

 

[zcf]

to stay in public housing or condo is a choice by the individual, not all are prefer to upgrade to condo. I don't know about others, I would rather staying in a cheap public housing and have better cash flow, rather than stay in a expensive public housing and with not much cash (wiht same housing condition).

A lot of Singaporean are now complaining on the expensive HDB housing, but not Condo pricing, how percentage of Singaporean actually aim for Condo?

I fail to see the logic of have expensive hdb so can get condo easier also, as the money is still with the owner, but it's in the matter of liquid cash flow or stuck in HDB.

 

[zero o]

ya because in singapore hdb is worth quite a lot. If our government decouples the private and public housing prices, people will find private housing much more expensive than public ones. then how can we achieve our dreams of owning a private housing?

u know how many singaporeans use hdb as a stepping stone to own condo? how they do it? because of the good resale value of hdb. would you rather want your hdb to be cheap and stay cheap forever and see condo prices go up every year?

it is totally illogical.

it depends on which side of the coin you are on or choose to argue for....

if u are wanting to buy a flat, whether for the 1st time or subsequent time, you want HDB flats to be as cheap as possible.
if u want to sell a flat, u want it to be pegged to market so that u can sell it high and earn the difference between your purchase price and the market price.

so govt can do one of 2 things ... price it cheap so that x% of the population who are looking to buy can be happy or depress HDB prices and make majority unhappy

basically people just want their cake and eat it la

 

[zero o]

to stay in public housing or condo is a choice by the individual, not all are prefer to upgrade to condo. I don't know about others, I would rather staying in a cheap public housing and have better cash flow, rather than stay in a expensive public housing and with not much cash (wiht same housing condition).

A lot of Singaporean are now complaining on the expensive HDB housing, but not Condo pricing, how percentage of Singaporean actually aim for Condo?

I fail to see the logic of have expensive hdb so can get condo easier also, as the money is still with the owner, but it's in the matter of liquid cash flow or stuck in HDB.

so u reckon if govt depress hdb prices to make it affordable for all buyers and at the same make sure that sellers sell at this low valuation price + a maximum allowable for COV, would that be better for HDB flat owners as a whole ?

the private market will continue to escalate and HDB owners will see others having capital appreciation yet because of the policy to make sure housing is affordable to the masses (new and old flats alike) .. do u think singaporeans will be happy ?

 

[vince123123]

I guess you missed the part where I said I was making a special exception just for you; and since I'm following exactly what you preached. Hence, I guess its no longer fun when you're given a taste of your own medicine

Cheers! And Happy Hari Raya

I see you are no longer reasonable. forget it.

 

[vince123123]

Actually, the government does not need to depress prices; it only needs to set its new flat prices at actual cost subsidy. If resale prices still go up; then so be it, its market forces. But what the govt is doing now is jacking up prices; which is the opposite of what you are saying. We are just asking the govt to play fair

Besides, there is also a great possibility that when new flats prices are low, resale are low, private property will likewise drop The gulf or divide may not be as big as imagined when everything falls to a more recognisable level. The lowest end private properties will definitely fall as no one wants to pay so much more, for just a little more. The lowest end privates are already just a tad above current resale. If new flat drop, resale drop, do you think the lowest end privates will stay there?

so u reckon if govt depress hdb prices to make it affordable for all buyers and at the same make sure that sellers sell at this low valuation price + a maximum allowable for COV, would that be better for HDB flat owners as a whole ?

the private market will continue to escalate and HDB owners will see others having capital appreciation yet because of the policy to make sure housing is affordable to the masses (new and old flats alike) .. do u think singaporeans will be happy ?

 

[zero o]

Actually, the government does not need to depress prices; it only needs to set its new flat prices at actual cost subsidy. If resale prices still go up; then so be it, its market forces. But what the govt is doing now is jacking up prices; which is the opposite of what you are saying. We are just asking the govt to play fair

Besides, there is also a great possibility that when new flats prices are low, resale are low, private property will likewise drop The gulf or divide may not be as big as imagined when everything falls to a more recognisable level. The lowest end private properties will definitely fall as no one wants to pay so much more, for just a little more. The lowest end privates are already just a tad above current resale. If new flat drop, resale drop, do you think the lowest end privates will stay there?

I see your point... but then the question remains .. what is the actual cost of a HDB flat ? All the figures quoted by 3rd parties to substantiate their argument - are those merely the actual cost of construction per unit - as in these are just material and labour cost ? Does that include stuff like land cost ? How about the infrastructure around the estate, like playground, lifts, lifts lobbies, car parks ? Or the cost to run HDB as a organization to provide these services ?

Pardon my ignorance please

 

[vince123123]

No problem, I'm glad to share with people open to discussinon.

The cost price of a HDB flat has been a closely guarded secret, as HDB has refused on many occassions to tell the public what it is, for reasons best known to itself.

Recently, an expert in financial matters wrote this article (which I also linked earlier but maybe you missed it or I really forgot) giving a good guess at what the cost really is:

http://theonlinecitizen.com/2009/09/cost-of-building-hdb-flats-finally-an-answer/

EDIT: After reading the article again I'm actually now reading the comments (I usaully read the articles when its first published with little comments). The comments to date are really enlightening as well; shd go read.

I see your point... but then the question remains .. what is the actual cost of a HDB flat ? All the figures quoted by 3rd parties to substantiate their argument - are those merely the actual cost of construction per unit - as in these are just material and labour cost ? Does that include stuff like land cost ? How about the infrastructure around the estate, like playground, lifts, lifts lobbies, car parks ? Or the cost to run HDB as a organization to provide these services ?

Pardon my ignorance please

 

[zero o]

I refer to the article u mentioned. I quote "BBR Holdings has secured a S$104.2-million contract from the Housing & Development Board (HDB) to build seven blocks of flats in Yishun Neighbourhood 4."

Based on that, the writer did his calculations to arrive at his numbers. That is just the cost that HDB is paying to BBR for the construction of the flats. There is no mention of land cost, which as we all know, in land scarce Singapore, can be a huge component of cost. Since the writer has left out land cost, he could have left out other cost, not because of his carelessness but due to the fact that BBR is not pricing for those components in their contract.

No problem, I'm glad to share with people open to discussinon.

The cost price of a HDB flat has been a closely guarded secret, as HDB has refused on many occassions to tell the public what it is, for reasons best known to itself.

Recently, an expert in financial matters wrote this article (which I also linked earlier but maybe you missed it or I really forgot) giving a good guess at what the cost really is:

http://theonlinecitizen.com/2009/09/cost-of-building-hdb-flats-finally-an-answer/

 

[vince123123]

That's why I asked you to read the comments as well; those did discuss about the land cost.

I refer to the article u mentioned. I quote "BBR Holdings has secured a S$104.2-million contract from the Housing & Development Board (HDB) to build seven blocks of flats in Yishun Neighbourhood 4."

Based on that, the writer did his calculations to arrive at his numbers. That is just the cost that HDB is paying to BBR for the construction of the flats. There is no mention of land cost, which as we all know, in land scarce Singapore, can be a huge component of cost. Since the writer has left out land cost, he could have left out other cost, not because of his carelessness but due to the fact that BBR is not pricing for those components in their contract.

 

[zero o]

That's why I asked you to read the comments as well; those did discuss about the land cost.

u edited yur post ...... .. i didnt see it
ok .. some people mention land cost, others mentioned sewage etc etc etc ..
yup all these are relevant and once u start putting all these in, then the so called profit margin diminishes. Of course the biggest component is land cost end of the day and if one starts debating about land cost .. it will be another can of worms

 

[vince123123]

Yup, remember to calculate land cost, it is "cost", not market cost again as they try to do with the whole market subsidy thing.

u edited yur post ...... .. i didnt see it
ok .. some people mention land cost, others mentioned sewage etc etc etc ..
yup all these are relevant and once u start putting all these in, then the so called profit margin diminishes. Of course the biggest component is land cost end of the day and if one starts debating about land cost .. it will be another can of worms

 

[theonlyone]

Actually, the government does not need to depress prices; it only needs to set its new flat prices at actual cost subsidy. If resale prices still go up; then so be it, its market forces. But what the govt is doing now is jacking up prices; which is the opposite of what you are saying. We are just asking the govt to play fair

Besides, there is also a great possibility that when new flats prices are low, resale are low, private property will likewise drop The gulf or divide may not be as big as imagined when everything falls to a more recognisable level. The lowest end private properties will definitely fall as no one wants to pay so much more, for just a little more. The lowest end privates are already just a tad above current resale. If new flat drop, resale drop, do you think the lowest end privates will stay there?

That's what HDB did when they sell HDB flats at very low price in the 80s and 90s. Subsequently, the resale flat prices started to go up. What happen was people started to take advantage by buying from HDB (they can buy from HDB twice), then reselling on the market when the time was riped. What happen to the money they gain? Buy car, go tour, enjoy life...

After a while, govt realised that flats are not going to bring the resale value down since the land is limited in S'pore. And this practice of selling new HDB flat at low price is equivalent giving new flat buyers lump sum of cash. What did these people do to deserve it? With the new cash, they will just clog the roads with more cars or spend it all on entertainment system or lose it on the stock market. So they decided to cash in. If they don't, the money that is needed to build the reserves will have to come from elsewhere. I've asked the same questions too. Do we just automatically give a lump sum to those just starting out in life? My answer is no!

If you are prudent in your financial planning, know your limits and don't ask for the sky, I'm quite sure finding your own nest is not a problem. I just got my resale flat last year. Location is not that good, house at low storey but at least I pay what I can afford.

 

[shojibake]

ya because in singapore hdb is worth quite a lot. If our government decouples the private and public housing prices, people will find private housing much more expensive than public ones. then how can we achieve our dreams of owning a private housing?

it is totally illogical.

This is illogical. ^^^^ Housing prices are never decoupled. Public housing prices are used traditionally to set the support level for private housing. Also using public housing as a stepping stone to buying something/anything else presupposes that the investment appreciates over time over and above the rise in prices and interest payments, which may have been true in the 80s but not now. Bottomline, cheaper hdb pricing would be better.

Also, there are few forces at work here. The influx of foreigners - i.e. the one sucker born every minute adage - results in many newcomers who are not familiar with the reason for housing prices being the way they are in the first place, and they simply just buy buy buy.

The problem with setting the hdb prices relatively high in the first place is it creates an upward pressure on the market. This is great for hdb, but not so good for first time buyers which, if you think about it, is going to include everyone's sons and daughters.

It's not painless to fix as well. If the govt decides to drop the pricing drastically, the housing market will flop, all those aunty uncles that bought during the upswing are going to find their housing loans to be a real burden because lets face it, not everyone is or wants to be a smart ass investor that can cover their position. I'm just not sure how many of them are on the wrong side of the coin because joe public cannot find access to these stats.

Bottomline is, public/private housing is the same. One is leased with rules, the other is possibly leased+conservancy charges and sometimes a swimming pool. If you find the prices are too high - Do Not Buy - and for heavens sake don't feed the housing agent monkeys. The loan burden will tie you into the country for decades.

just like cars.

 

[vince123123]

Here's another recent article on the HDB price rise:

http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/2009/09/affordability-in-singapore.html

 

[vince123123]

An article with some views on how resale prices are being affected by the HDB:

http://temasekreview.com/2009/09/22...ip-becoming-a-liability-rather-than-an-asset/

 

[vince123123]

An article written about the supposed "choosiness" of buyers today:

http://secretpoliticalblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/cant-afford-hdb-flats-you-deserve-it-if.html

 

[theonlyone]

No matter how many articles are being written, you can't run away with the fact that selling flats at cost is not going to bring down resale value much. This had been done before in the 90s. Back then, people were just buying from HDB and then reselling on the resale market just to make money. They could buy and sell, buy and sell because the regulations were not tight. That's why we have so much restriction nowadays like can only buy from HDB twice, cannot sell within certain period etc. But even now, you can still get a tidy some by selling on the resale market. There is no way to keep releasing new flats in those mature estate. Price cannot be controlled that way.

 

[vince123123]

Apparently you have already decided, and respectfully I beg to differ. Do refer to the earlier post I made about the upwards price spiral caused as a result of new flat price propping up resale flat prices. Bare denials don't do much to advance your point. Restrictions has nothing to do with new flat prices.

No matter how many articles are being written, you can't run away with the fact that selling flats at cost is not going to bring down resale value much. This had been done before in the 90s. Back then, people were just buying from HDB and then reselling on the resale market just to make money. They could buy and sell, buy and sell because the regulations were not tight. That's why we have so much restriction nowadays like can only buy from HDB twice, cannot sell within certain period etc. But even now, you can still get a tidy some by selling on the resale market. There is no way to keep releasing new flats in those mature estate. Price cannot be controlled that way.