WHATS NEXT FOR M43, after Olympus, what future is left?

[Pitachu]

The total units of digital cameras sold in 2023 is about 120 million units sold.
(source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1172711/forecast-of-digital-camera-sales-volume)

Even with a 1% to 2% market share, Leica, OMDS, Pentax and a few others can still survive.
1% of market share is 1,200,000 units of cameras. And OMDS main camera sales in 2023 is their flagship model OM-1 with a little bit of OM-5 and TG-7.
With a average sales price of $2000, that is $2.4 billion of sales revenue!
Otherwise JIP would not be interested to pump in money to invest.
And if it is not breaking even, JIP would have pulled the trigger 2 years ago instead of letting OMDS develop new products.

Olympus is forced to sell off the Imaging Division because based on its overall corporate policy, it cannot retrenched redundant workers when sales volume drop. When JIP took over, it changed the method of production to outsourced batch manufacturing. This means that as products like the EM-5 are all being sold, then OMDS manufacture the OM-5. In the meantime, it does not have to keep a huge labour force.

The future of MFT depends on whether OMDS and Panasonic can sell enough MFT cameras/lenses to break even.
If both continue to lose mountains of money each year.
Their continued survival is reliant on the sense of charity of their parent companies.

Panasonic has a (so far) indulgent and doting parent company.
OMDS parent company is JIP who are by nature Accountants (bean counters).
Bean counters are NOT forgiving when huge losses are made year after year.

The ex-Olympus Camera Division already has its head proverbially chopped off.
For making terrible losses by insisting on MFT.

In both cases of OMDS & Panasonic Camera Division, the CEOs will not stick to MFT - if the huge losses (probably hundreds of millions) came out of their own pocket/bank account.
But they are happy to lose OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.

 

[ricohflex]

From statista.com
Quote {
How many mirrorless cameras are sold each year?
In 2022, a total of around 4.11 million digital mirrorless cameras were shipped by CIPA companies all over the world.19 May 2023
} UnQuote

That is the detail breakdown for mirrorless cameras.
So far cannot find the figure for 2023.

Another source 1kcreatives.com says market share by brand within mirrorless sales in 2022.
Mirrorless Sales

• Sony – 32%
• Canon – 28%
• OM System – 12.7%
• Nikon, Fuji, Panasonic – no data

12.7% of 4.11 million = 521,970
At $2,000 per unit is $1,043,940,000

JIP will decide whether this is good enough to continue operations.

Sales data for Panasonic Lumix mirrorless in MFT format in 2022 is unknown.

 

[one eye jack]

Thread viewership reached 80K.
No point talking about sales figures when there is no wow camera in sight. When Leica collaborated with Panasonic they shared lens expertise as well as Panasonic camera but see the difference as implemented by Leica.

What went wrong, no connection?

Leica d lux7 aka Lumix LX100 or their implementation of colour or he edits good?
Jpegs @14:17

More jpegs but just like Lumix?

Real colour can only be defined by the photographer, use a colour chart. So ultimately it's a matter of personal taste and sensibility.

 

[Pitachu]

Olympus is not doing too badly .....

Mapcamera (One of the largest store in Japan) shared the top selling cameras of December:

Mapcamera: OM-1 makes it into the top ten of the best selling camera in December – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[one eye jack]

The world is waiting for a wow camera from Panasonic and OMDS.
Cambridge dictionary...

one swallow doesn't make a summer​

idiom saying

Add to word list
used to say that because one good thing has happened, it is not therefore certain that a situation is going to improve

 

[Pitachu]

That's true, but I think JIP will not allocate so much funds to OMDS to come out with multiple product lines like Sony or Canon.
OMDS need to be a consistent money owner with OM-1 first and now with TG-7 before it can have more product lines.
Some of us are hopeful of a Pen-F mk 2. TG-7 and Pen F do not need to be wow cameras, but have features to cater for a niche market is good enough.
After all, even Apple or Samsung are not able to come out with a Wow Camera Phone nowadays as the technology is so mature already.

Likewise, Panasonic is hoping to cater for some niche market in Full Frame S series and recently relaunch its G100D after seeing Sony has strong sales in its ZV series as vloggers camera. But again these are not Wow Cameras.

The world is waiting for a wow camera from Panasonic and OMDS.
Cambridge dictionary...

one swallow doesn't make a summer​

idiom saying

Add to word list
used to say that because one good thing has happened, it is not therefore certain that a situation is going to improve

 

[ricohflex]

Nobody goes into business to purposely lose big sums of money each year, consistently over many years.
This sort of fantasy has an ................ END POINT.
Eventually MFT manufacturers OMDS and Panasonic will have to decide to stop. Because the world wide market rejects it.

 

[one eye jack]

The task for Panasonic and OMDS is to identify what the consumer really want. I still say that a cheap compact camera is the way to go. Obviously both companies need a volume seller and a camera that wows whether it be spectacular features that users find exciting and more importantly stylish to look at to fill up the order book. So discussions like this helps generate the "energy" for something to happen or materialise. But the rumours going around of a "high end" camera may perhaps be wishful thinking. Still the wishlist of a pen F2, GM , GX or GH type by Panasonic is what you hear in the forums. Even the Japanese camera enthusiasts are lamenting OM1 weakness in AF and the general lack of action by OMDS that does not generate excitement is off putting to some. Read this , if it is not in English then Google translate.

2024年には昨年よりも確実に多くのｍ4/3のカメラとレンズが登場する

43rumorsがYouTubeチャンネルで、2024年のマイクロフォーサーズの...

digicame-info.com

 

[Pitachu]

Er..... Panasonic & Olympus (probably about 2-3% market share).
Leica probably has less than 2% market share. So 98% of the photographers reject Leica???

Already explained in my previous post, even a 1% market share is sufficient for Leica, Panasonic and Olympus.
Every camera has a target market and a niche. Just because you do not need it or unaware of how the features can help you does not mean that the whole world reject it!!! Go and join some birding group and try to spot the few photographers with both Sony and Olympus Gear. And they will explain to you the pros and cons of each system.

But I do agree with @one eye jack that OMDS and Panasonic need to improve in certain areas eg. their AF

Nobody goes into business to purposely lose big sums of money each year, consistently over many years.
This sort of fantasy has an ................ END POINT.
Eventually MFT manufacturers OMDS and Panasonic will have to decide to stop. Because the world wide market rejects it.

 

[Pitachu]

Just wondering, why OMDS wanted to design a 12-100 F3.5-6.0 lenses?
OMDS already inherited an excellent 12-100 F4 lenses from Olympus.

My own speculation is that OMDS is planning to release a Pen F ii and this could be a compact kit lenses for the Pen F mk2.
This is probably in response to the Sony A7Cii and A7CR which has been gaining popularity lately.

Sony has also launched the A9iii with 120fps to target Olympus OM-1 120fps.
I am guessing that OMDS will want to regain it's turf by introducing a OM-1 mk2 probably with Global Sensor to match the A9iii.
Olympus did not gain much popularity swith the EM1x, as users tend to stay with the 3 big boys for Giant Bodies for Sport
so it is unlikely that OMDS will launch the OM-1x

OM Digital patented a new 12-100mm f/3.5-6.0 lens – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[ricohflex]

OMDS is not in financial shape to spend money on R&D.
Their release of cameras after creation of OMDS - are models already in the process of design and manufacture under the ex-Olympus Camera Division.
OMDS has not innovated anything NEW. It will die a corporate death. Probably a slow death.

Who will buy a camera with the logo words "OM System" on the body.
They have messed up the BRANDING.

 

[Pitachu]

A number of Sony users actually bought the OM-1 as an alternative camera to shoot birds, for the focal multiplier and high fps.
If you don't believe me, join the local Olympus club for their birding events. There are a few photographers using OM-1 besides their main camera.
I don't think anyone cares, especially Olympus used to have a OM series of cameras.

But I do agree with you that Olympus need to innovate or they will be gone.

OMDS is not in financial shape to spend money on R&D.
Their release of cameras after creation of OMDS - are models already in the process of design and manufacture under the ex-Olympus Camera Division.
OMDS has not innovated anything NEW. It will die a corporate death. Probably a slow death.

Who will buy a camera with the logo words "OM System" on the body.
They have messed up the BRANDING.

 

[Pitachu]

Besides Olympus making top 3 in 10 cameras in 50% of the retail stores in Japan, notice that it is all the smaller cameras Canon M series, Nikon fc, Sony ZV-E etc etc that are actually more popular. Maybe M43 is getting popularity again

BCN ranking for 2023: Three OM Digital cameras made it into the top 10 of the best selling cameras of the year! – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

 

[JW73]

Recently, users of Sony or Nikon or canon are praising/screaming the pre-capture function in their high end cameras. This technology already exist in Em1ii since 2016 called pro capture.

The om system is gaining popularity in the bird photography. I agreed there are users who uses both FF and the Om system. Each has it’s advantages n disadvantages.

 

[one eye jack]

Besides Olympus making top 3 in 10 cameras in 50% of the retail stores in Japan, notice that it is all the smaller cameras Canon M series, Nikon fc, Sony ZV-E etc etc that are actually more popular. Maybe M43 is getting popularity again

BCN ranking for 2023: Three OM Digital cameras made it into the top 10 of the best selling cameras of the year! – 43 Rumors

www.43rumors.com

This gives credence to what I said all along that m43 should produce a cheap compact camera for the masses. Quite interesting is 9 out of 10 are entry level crop sensor cameras but actually EP7 was a high end compact with Sony a7iv being the only FF camera. It is also understandable that all 3 of the Olympus cameras are discontinued models that are sold at a discount hence the value for money proposition.
But I think no pen f2 as it will be a $2k camera, not exactly budget type.

Edit: Thread views reached 81k. How can Panasonic and OMDS ignore this sales data, it's a no brainer?

 

[ricohflex]

BCN is only from sales data from about 40% of Japan retailers, It does not represent worldwide market share.
The 3 models are named "Olympus".
OMDS cannot make it with their camera models named "OM Systems". Told you it was a Branding blunder.

Because data source is only 40%, (less than half) it cannot even be said to represent Japan market.

60% are not reflected.

My observation is that this choice of 40% - allows BCN to Cherry Pick.
So that they can deliver a pre-determined "result".
That serves their company sponsors. Statistics can be used to lie.

 

[Pitachu]

Er..... @ricohflex is there something wrong with your eyes.... it is 50% not 40%.
And they don't cherry pick..... why would they do that for OMDS.
BCN is an association of Camera Retailers, not any manufacturer!!!!!

You are the one that always cherry pick news and twist them to be against OMDS. LOL

 

[Pitachu]

OMDS and the community is still very active. For those interested, can tune in and listen

OM SYSTEM TECH DAY - 30TH OF JANUARY

Join us for a full day of photography education with our tech experts and ambassadors! Join us for a day filled with exclusive insights, hands-on demonstrations, and behind-the-scenes glimpses into cutting-edge photography technology. From mastering camera settings to exploring advanced...

events.eao.omsystem.com

 

[ricohflex]

(Nikonrumors) They say...

BCN Ranking released their 2020 Japanese camera market share report (not worldwide!). BCN Ranking collects real sales data only from approximately 40% of the Japanese retailers. The Nikon related numbers:

Read more: https://nikonrumors.com/2021/01/18/...amera-market-share-report.aspx/#ixzz8PHFtKnu1

(Photorumors) They also say...

BCN Ranking published the latest camera market share for Japan for the first six months of 2023

BCN Ranking collects real sales data from approximately 40% of the Japanese retailers – this is not a worldwide market share report.

Read more: https://photorumors.com/2023/07/23/165257/#ixzz8PHGeqCCD



No one is cherry picking OMDS.
The problem with OMDS is that consumers world wide (and in Japan) are NOT picking it.
They prefer better cameras from other brands.

 

[one eye jack]

Well BCN rankings in Japan tells more is not well in camera industry.

Sony drops to 7th. place for compact cameras.

Sony fell from the top spot to the 7th place in the compact digital market in Japan - Photo Rumors

BCN Ranking reports that Sony lost a significant market share in the compact digital market in Japan and fell to the 7th place from the #1 spot they held just a year ago (Google translation): “Sony ‘s share of the compact digital camera market is rapidly declining. In May of last year, the sales...

photorumors.com

Lens makers are fighting tooth and nail for market share. Surprisingly OMDS lenses outsell Panasonic and Fujifilm. Mirrorless lenses has not expanded.

Fierce competition for the top spot in the interchangeable lens market (market share by brand and by mount) - Photo Rumors

BCH Ranking's latest data on the interchangeable lens market share (sales share) shows that the top five companies are in fierce competition with a very narrow gap in market share - the share difference from the 1st to the 5th place is only 3.3%: 1. Canon: 17.1% 2. Sigma: 16% 3. Tamron: 15.1% 4...

photorumors.com

OMDS 2022 lens market share which is still strong.