This really caught my eye... so you mean, the best method of backing up is still making manual copies from HDD to HDD as it grows?
This thread is getting very educational and I am learning more... thank you.
It's an interesting discussion, indeed.
Before talking about "what to do" it is good to differentiate between "Backup" and "Redundancy". Redundancy is a concept to avoid "Single Points of Failure"; that means critical parts of a (IT) system are built in a way to overcome failures of single components (more or less) instantly. This keeps the system alive and ensures a higher availability compared to non-redundant systems. For storage (hard disks) the concept of RAID was developed. More can be read here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAID
Backup means to keep several versions (='generations') of data for a certain period with the purpose to rebuilt the working data in case of a fatal data loss. Also, it allows "going back in time" to have the data at the moment of a certain time stamp. This concept has different requirements to the used technology, so RAID is not an option here. One important aspect is: once the data are written they must be protected from accidental changes. Otherwise the "going back in time" concept is violated. Because of the shorter retention period and economical reasons backup media are usable for multiple backups overwriting the older data. The protection against accidental changes is achieved by other means (software, organizational processes). Archiving must be safe from all kinds of alteration.
Another aspect is: how long do you want to keep your data? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? Usually (IT Industry), backup data are kept for about 4 to 8 weeks. Afterwards they are replaced by copies of more recent data. But everything above 1 year retention period is considered as "archiving", not backup. Also important: the technology to create the backups and data archives must be available in order to read your backup and archive media and retrieve the data. This includes hardware (drives and interfaces), operating systems and hardware drivers, file systems and file formats.
The typical backup medias used in IT are tapes whereas forms of WORM media are used for archiving. Tapes have evolved to a pretty high capacity (DLT S4: 800GB per tape), but also require the respective drives which are not cheap. DLT IV stores 40GB per tape and the drives and tapes should be affordable by now. Alternatively, cheap WORM media can be used. WORM = Write Once, Read Many; which is basically what we know as CD/DVD-ROM. Another type of WORM are special Magneto-Optical Disks (MO-Disks) which are used for audit-save data archiving. The consumer MO-Disks are not WORM's but rather "external hard drives" with a write protection switch. There are MO types of 2.3GB capacity. But they all require a special drive. Fujitsu and Sony have this available (Sony users know it as "Mini Disk".)
The next aspect is the storage of your media. Tapes need certain environmental conditions, CD/DVD as well. Otherwise the chemical and physical processes happening inside will rapidly make them unreadable. Additionally, tapes should be kept away from all kind of electromagnetic radiation. All this can be achieved by storing them in dry cabinets and keeping the temperature at about 22 degrees.
MO-Disks are pretty robust, they can stand higher temperatures and also any kind of electromagnetic radiation. The casing provides good mechanical protection, too.
Conclusion: DVD's can be a cheap and easy way to backup and archive your data for the next couple of years. But you need to keep them in a safe place (dry cabinet). Since BluRay drives are CD/DVD-compatible the access to the backups should be safe for the next 5 years. Latest after this period you'll need to verify the media status and transfer the data to a newer media set. Be aware: some CD/DVD writers are quite inaccurate which may result in media being unreadable in other drives.
Tapes require some additional hardware but the technology is pretty mature by now and there are enough real-live data about how the tapes 'age' and how to handle them.
MO-Disks seem to be a good solution for long-term archiving but are more costly and require the special drives. There are some vendors of industrial media who give 30 years warranty for the media and the drives to be available. Consumer MO-Disks can be used but I'm not sure for how long the drives will be available and if they can read all older disks.
Other topics about file systems (FAT32, NTFS, ext2, ext3, HPFS and others) and file formats (jpg, jpeg, raw, png and others) appear to be less critical. There are plenty of tools available to convert older data into newer formats.