Set to S-AF, track the subject and wait for that split second. Dragonflies may have erratic path but they do "pause" during flight too, don't they?
OK they do pause. You just have to be pointing in their pause space and reacquire aim and focus when they come in view, which is rather difficult if you are at the long end of a tele.
It is all a question of increasing your chances of a good frozen in-flight capture, and to do it consistently, in contrast to a one off fluke shot.
This is what I can think:
1. observe the target, and it matters most if it periodically returns to a spot, eg dragonfly hover, F1 racing, etc.
2. some reference object near that spot, to prefocus the camera to minimise focus hunt.
3. wait for target to return to "ambush space" - and this can be most taxing. Many a kitkat moments occur when you change your ambush space thinking that you have picked a lemon.
4. accurately and rapidly aim and reacquire focus - if necessary - and release shutter.
But all these will not work if the total time delay for aiming, focus reacquisition - be it manual or auto - and shutter release is "too long", unless the target remains in the DOF within this lag. Some tracking is possible in this time and space.
(Use manual focus here if your hand-eye coordination is faster and more accurate than the auto focus algorithm and the view in viewfinder is useable.)
If target does not return to a spot periodically, then use tracking technique, which is a far lower probability technique than waiting for an "ambush".
The difficulties here are:
1. maintaining track, especially if target does not move in a predictable path
2. constant focus acquisition - I have no idea how the auto focus algorithm compute focus range for changing scene. My guess is that it samples the scene at the time you hit the focus button, and computes the range for the maximal contrast within the selected focus area. (But I suspect there is resampling going on too.) The moving target will still be in focus if it remains within this range and within the DOF. If not the focus is off.
To increase chances:
1. observe and have knowledge, and track during predictable movement phase
2. have as much DOF as possible
3. accurate constant aiming, this is not unlike panning skills, except, when using tele, it is trying to pan with a straw-tube view of the world, and when tracking insects, on a high manoeuvrable and unpredictable target.
I have not got any successful shot with the tracking technique yet. Only the ambush have worked for me.