My 2011 predictions

[Magnus Wedberg]

Thom Hogan always tries to guess what is going to happen in the photo industry the coming year. I thought I would try to top that. So here they are, my 2011 predictions:

http://www.magnuswedberg.com/index.php?doc=2011_predictions

Enjoy

 

[Agetan]

Hi Magnus,

I am sure what you predict will eventually come true sooner than 2011, but in my opinion, the dedicated Still DSLR will remain, at least in professional market.

Of course, it is fairly hard to think beyond 2 years for me as the market is so hot and unstable...

Only the stronger will remain...

Regards,

Hart

 

[pai]

technology and camera department may head in the direction you predicted, but the thought of it worries me...

point a camera in a certain direction, and just record everything. get the shot you missed cos it was in the buffer... the difference between this and what we do right now sounds like the difference between hiring a big trawler and net to catch fish, vs an evening at the pier with a fishing rod.

 

[TME]

Thom Hogan always tries to guess what is going to happen in the photo industry the coming year. I thought I would try to top that. So here they are, my 2011 predictions:

http://www.magnuswedberg.com/index.php?doc=2011_predictions

Enjoy

Enjoyed reading it... won't think too much about it until it comes about...

 

[satay16]

haha... happy to hear sony being tops.

 

[Magnus Wedberg]

the difference between this and what we do right now sounds like the difference between hiring a big trawler and net to catch fish, vs an evening at the pier with a fishing rod.

Absolutely: but it is the logical next step, we had 10fps sports cameras for film -- but the limiting factor for film was the limited amount of "storage space" (36 frames equals 3.6 seconds of shooting at that speed). With digital, there is no set limit as there are no physical boundaries.

But I agree, it's not the same art; sadly, I don't think there is a market for more "low tech", "artsy" camera systems such as leica -- and certainly not a sub-market for more traditional cameras within the current brands. Marketing will force all cameras to have "too many features" becqause it's relatively cheap to do this in hard- and software.

 

[Magnus Wedberg]

haha... happy to hear sony being tops.

I think of it this way: Sony is likely to try a serious push before giving up. When they are serious about a market, they will stop at nothing, and I do think they have a chance of threatening Nikon.

Minolta could never have threatened Nikon and Canon because of their completely inept marketing. They always seemed to be mostly interested in the Japanese market (where they had a much higher share of the market). On the other hand, they have always had excellent technology. Sony excels in marketing, is not a sentimental company, and now THEY have excellent technology. They are also slightly evil, and that may be good.

 

[user111]

maybe only sony and canon will be left

 

[phantasia]

hehe i doubt nikon will just stand there and be makaned. Probably they will merge with fujifilm to make use of their sensors.

I think eventually it'll just be canon, sony and nikon as the big 3 in that order. Unfortunately i doubt samsung, pentax, oly, panasonic will be getting anywhere far in the advanced consumer/dslr market.